AJ is back with his thoughts and picks for this year's Oscars. Please take a minute or two to check out his Tumblr, filled with some of his amazing short stories and thoughts on various subjects. Also be sure to find him on Vimeo, where you view his latest projects. But enough promotion, let's get to his third annual Oscar post... Enjoy.
Hello everyone! It’s me again, A.J., here to offer my annual Oscar predictions to Ashleigh’s dear readership.
Listen guys, I was just looking over my picks from the past two years and realized that I successfully picked 12 out of 15 major awards. That means I’m 80% more accurate at predicting the results of the Oscars than Harold Camping is at predicting the end of the world.
But this year’s award show might just shed a few points off that relatively decent accuracy rate of mine. I can’t think of a Best Picture race in recent memory where there were absolutely no clear-cut favorites.
I guess you could say that Silver Linings Playbook is a favorite if only because it is produced by the Weinstein brothers and those two have a knack for swooning Academy voters into awarding their films with the golden statuette. The producing duo has taken home the coveted golden prize twice in the last four years.
On the other hand, some viewers have complained that the movie is too sappy. I still haven’t seen the film, which is strange because I usually make it a point to see each serious Oscar contender in theaters. I remember a few years ago I hopped on the barely-used Los Angeles subway system to take a 45 minute ride over to Universal City just to see Slumdog Millionaire while it was still in theaters. I don’t know what it is about Silver Linings that is unappealing to me. I usually enjoy David O. Russell’s films (The Fighter Flirting With Disaster, I Heart Huckabees) but even Silver Linings’ positive reviews and ubiquitous TV spots have yet to convince me to dish out the $14 to see it in theaters. Still, I guess as long as the Weinstein brothers are involved, it has a good shot to win.
But then you can’t ignore Lincoln, a critical darling since its release in November. Its producers have been preaching to Oscar voters about the film’s relevance to current heated political issues such as Medicare and gun control and how today’s leaders can learn a lesson from our sixteenth president’s display of courage and sensibility in the face of political adversity.
However, to borrow a quote from the film’s iconic director Steven Spielberg, “Everybody loves a winner, but nobody loves a winner.” Will Oscar voters overlook Lincoln because of its box office success and the fact that Spielberg has already won a Best Picture award for his masterpiece,Schindler’s List? Maybe voters will think the film’s twelve nominations are a victory in itself.
So we are left with Argo, this year’s Golden Globe winner for Best Drama. I saw it way back in October and found it to be a fun movie; even though it was less unexpectedly entertaining as Ben Affleck’s excellent 2010 film The Town. A friend of mine had an interesting and funny take on Argo’s surprising award season dominance. He said “Hollywood is patting themselves on the back for making a movie in which Hollywood pats itself on the back.” That’s the type of ludicrous ego that drives the Hollywood system and started this whole awards-giving nonsense. Argo is a classic example of the type of film that Hollywood loves to award with its top prize. Let’s see what happens on Sunday. Until then, here are my picks:
Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Spoiler: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
Spoiler: Sally Field, Lincoln
Best Supporting Actor: Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook
Spoiler: Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Spoiler: Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Best Original Screenplay: Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
Spoiler: Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom
Best Adapted Screenplay: Tony Kushner, Lincoln
Spoiler: David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Best Cinematography: Life of Pi
Spoiler: Lincoln
Best Editing: Zero Dark Thirty
Spoiler: Argo
Best Director: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Spoiler: Michael Haneke, Amour
Best Picture: Lincoln
Spoiler: Argo